On the eve of the Railway Industry Association’s (RIA) annual conference, new polling data from Savanta shows that 48% of UK rail industry leaders expect a contraction in the rail supply sector next year. The survey, conducted between September and October of 250 rail business leaders, highlights widespread anxiety within the industry despite recent government commitments to major rail projects.

The polling results reflect the ongoing uncertainty in the rail sector after a politically tumultuous year. Importantly, the survey was carried out ahead of the October 30 2024 Budget announcement, which outlines new funding for high-profile projects such as the High-Speed ​​2 (HS2) line linking Old Oak Common to Aston. was presented. The budget also includes a commitment to a long-term rolling stock pipeline, aimed at encouraging greater stability and investment in the rail supply chain.

Survey results at a glance:

• Outlook on Industry Growth: Only 26% of respondents predict growth in the rail supply industry, while nearly half (48%) expect contraction – a slight improvement from the 54% forecast for 2023.
• Business-Specific Forecasts: Despite overall industry concerns, 46% of respondents expect growth within their business, with 29% predicting contraction. This is in line with the 2023 figures, although it marks the lowest confidence level in five years.
• Expected rail downtime: 83 percent of industry leaders expect rail downtime in the coming year, due to ongoing rail reforms and budget uncertainty around major infrastructure projects. There is a possible delay.
• Planned business adjustments: In response to this anticipated layoff, many rail businesses plan to freeze or slow hiring (51%, up from 44% last year), prioritize overseas work (51%, 42 over %), and expansion delays in the UK (35%).

Commenting on the survey results, RIA Chief Executive Darren Caplan said: “The survey results reflect the second year of rail supply leaders looking at the outlook for the wider UK rail market and the prospects for their business in particular. More than 80% predicted a pause in work in the next year, with a detailed timeline for rail reforms or firm commitments to deliver major projects still awaited Uncertainty negatively affects recruitment, expansion projects and suppliers, who will seek refuge in other sectors and overseas markets if more confidence does not return.”

RIA hopes that clear government roadmaps on investment and reform timelines will support the rail industry’s workforce and expansion plans, bringing value to both passengers and taxpayers. The annual conference, taking place in London on 6-7 November 2024, will address these issues, bringing together industry stakeholders to discuss the way forward for UK rail development. .