VanEck’s Latest Bitcoin (BTC) Report reaffirmed its cycle price target of $180,000, citing strong bullish indicators that are consistent with the current market rally.

The asset manager highlighted key metrics, including funding rates, relative unrealized returns (RUP), and retail interest trends, as indications that the bull market is still in its early stages.

Bitcoin has soared into uncharted territory, trading near $100,000 after a post-election rally. According to VanEck, this reflects market behavior in late 2020, when bitcoin doubled after the US presidential election and continued its upward trajectory in the year that followed.

With a pro-Bitcoin regulatory environment and growing institutional interest, VanEck believes the next phase of the bull market is underway.

The matrix indicates bullish sentiment.

VanEck analyzed chronic futures funding rates as a measure of market sentiment, and found that higher rates above 10% are often associated with significant short- to medium-term gains.

Since November 12, funding rates have consistently exceeded this threshold, reminiscent of the early stages of a bull market.

The report stated:

“Historically, persistently high funding rates indicate bullish momentum.”

However, he also cautioned that higher rates often signal cycle tops over more extended time frames.

Additionally, the report examines relative unrealized returns (RUP), which measures unrealized returns in the market. The current 30-day moving average RUP levels at around 0.54, well below the 0.70 range typically associated with market tops.

VanEck noted that RUP levels between 0.60 and 0.70 offer very favorable conditions for short- to medium-term trading.

Retail interest increases.

VanEck observed that retail interest remains below historical peaks as measured by Google searches for “crypto” and Coinbase’s App Store rankings. The search term’s popularity is only 34% of its May 2021 peak, indicating that the speculative frenzy has yet to take hold.

Meanwhile, Coinbase’s App Store ranking rose from 412 to 9 following Bitcoin’s election-night breakout, signaling renewed engagement from retail investors.

The report emphasizes that Bitcoin’s current market trends point further upward before reaching the euphoria typically associated with market peaks. VanEck expects Bitcoin’s price to potentially double from current levels, reflecting a nearly 1,000% return from the cycle’s trough to its peak of $180,000.

VanEck concluded:

“With the key indicators turning green, it looks like the rally is just getting started.”

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