The Middle East is boiling again. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has been killed in an attack in Beirut, the Israeli military said today. This time the flare-up is truly alarming and could be apocalyptic in its potential.

The beginning of recent strikes

On September 17-18, the world was shocked when a series of attacks in Lebanon involved exploding pagers and walkie-talkies, mostly attributed to Iran-backed Hezbollah. The attacks were allegedly carried out by Israel. About 30 people lost their lives and thousands were reported injured. Soon after, Israel launched airstrikes on settlements in southern and eastern Lebanon, which it called ‘targeted killings’, to eliminate Hezbollah leaders and operatives. According to the estimates of the Lebanese Ministry of Health, more than 1,000 people have been killed and more than 5,000 injured in these attacks. Many of them are ordinary citizens, showing how well Hezbollah is embedded in the local population. Several other Hezbollah leaders such as Ibrahim Aqil have been confirmed dead.

To be fair, it was Hezbollah that launched attacks on northern Israel on October 7 last year in response to Hamas’ multi-pronged attacks in Israel. Hezbollah’s rationale was to open a second front against Israel and force it to declare a ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza. Millions of Israelis have been displaced in the north of the country due to Hezbollah’s attack.

Destruction in Gaza

Almost a year has passed since the war in Gaza started. Much of the enclave has been flattened, much of Hamas is in decline, and many of its leaders have been killed. The total number of dead is 40,000. At least one-third of them are women and children.

In May of this year, Israel launched a series of airstrikes in Rafah, followed by ground incursions. So far, he has not been able to achieve his goal of freeing all the hostages taken by Hamas on October 7. While some have been released, others have died in captivity, and many others have been held hostage.

In large part, Israel’s retaliation against Hezbollah was calculated because it wanted to prevent any large-scale conflagration. However, since late July, when Hezbollah killed 12 children in attacks on Israel, its attacks have steadily increased. Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, has said that what Israel was doing was conducting “precision strikes” against Hezbollah’s command centers, weapons caches and leadership in Lebanon.

Why is Israel feeling so confident?

Hezbollah, after all, is not Hamas. It is completely dependent on Iran and has a larger, more professional and sophisticated military. It even has seats in the Lebanese Parliament. It is war-hardened and has fought wars with Israel before. In 2000, it succeeded in driving the Israeli Defense Forces out of southern Lebanon, and in 2006, the group forced it to retreat. The organization has often been referred to as “a state within a state”. While many Lebanese Shiites despise the group – and many would welcome Nasrallah’s ouster as he has brought one disaster after another to Lebanon with what he says was an ‘Iranian’ agenda – the community has is appreciated and has played its part. To keep President Bashar al-Assad in power in Syria.

Despite all this, Israel’s actions betray the belief that it might now do to Lebanon what it did to Gaza. After all, Lebanon is a politically inactive state; Its currency has collapsed, its economy is in ruins and, according to World Bank figures, 44% of its population lives in poverty. War would be disastrous for the country. Israel has already demonstrated that despite widespread condemnation of the use of disproportionate force in the Gaza Strip – where Israel now appears to be ending operations – it has been able to stay the course. , the international community is unable or unwilling to stop its attack.

Iran is on the fence.

Then, Hezbollah’s patron, Iran, is not in a comfortable position either. It faces internal and external challenges. In fact, with direct attacks on Israel in April, Tehran signaled in a way that it does not want a direct war with Israel, which has both a superior economy and military. Thus, while Iran may not be able to throw its favored henchmen under the bus, it may not be in a position to sideline Hezbollah’s arsenal. In addition, a number of recent assassinations — including that of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh — point to a breach within the ranks of both Iran and Hezbollah. This will certainly lead to further internal disunity and discord.

The fact that Iran’s new president, Masoud Pizshakyan, has also announced his intention to cooperate with the West on the nuclear deal is further motivation for Israel. Pizshakyan may be seeing a window of opportunity while Democrats still hold power in Washington. He does not want to jeopardize this opportunity by rushing to help Hezbollah.

Another factor encouraging Israel may be the US presidential election. In the event of a war in the region pitting Israel against one or other of its adversaries, Israel’s bipartisan support in the United States is assured. The U.S. has deployed 12 warships to the region, and the IDF just announced this week that the U.S. is providing another $8.7 billion in military aid. It is doubtful whether such assistance would come to Iran from any of its friends.

There is a price to pay for Israel’s actions.

All these factors may have emboldened Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but his actions are also paying a heavy price for Israel. The Israeli economy is in shambles. Foreign investment has declined, tourism, a major draw for the country, has collapsed, nearly 46,000 businesses have gone bankrupt, and the country’s credit rating has been downgraded. On the military front as well, while the Israelis are still under Hamas control, the IDF has also suffered. Reports say about 10,000 reservists have sought mental health help, and a significant number have not shown up the second or third time they call, citing “burnout.” Israel’s own resources are rapidly depleting and it will take time to replenish them. Yet public approval for the war with Lebanon seems to go far beyond its actions in Gaza. Killing Nasrallah would go a long way in bolstering support for the Netanyahu government.

However, beyond all this, the most important thing is that there is no permanent military solution to the conflicts in the region because the problem is fundamentally political. Israel can flatten Gaza and will repeat the same stockpile in Lebanon. It can destroy Hamas and Hezbollah. But hatred will live on. Over time, new incarnations of Hamas and Hezbollah will continue to emerge.

(Aditi Bhaduri is a journalist and political analyst)

Disclaimer: These are the personal views of the author.

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