
Mumbai, India – The Salgunkar wakes up a few hours before dawn and begins to cook to sell his suburban Mumbai home. His son, immortal only returns from work when the sun rises well and he makes it a palm full of about 100 vegetables.
Salgunkar lost about an unprecedented job about a year ago, and his son, 35, lost his job to sell a mobile phone and data plan six months ago. To hire no retailers, he finally did temporary work, traveled overnight on transport trucks, helped drivers talk to police and other officials.
This week, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharman presents a budget on March 1, he will have to find a way to develop and encourage millions of people like Salga cars, who are struggling to find a stable job, while Maintaining the goals of the fiscal deficit.
“We do not sit at home,” says Prima, how did they end in these temporary jobs? She quickly list how vegetable prices have risen, and she has left a little money to cover the costs and save for immortal marriage, which now a Like a remote dream, he does not have a permanent job.
India’s total domestic product (GDP) growth for the quarter ended September 2024 increased to 5.4 %, the latest data available and the slowest in seven circles. It is expected that the growth will be 6.4 percent for the fiscal year ending March 31, the lowest in four years. However, “there is no room for financial relaxation,” says Dhirj Nam, a economist at the ANZ Bank, or increasing government spending to start development.
India’s fiscal deficit balloon has led to an increase in government spending during pandemic diseases.
Economists say that private companies are dragging consumer demand and low investment economy by private companies.
“Some economists, including myself, have flags,” says Sunil Sinha, a professor of economics at the Chandigarh Institute for Development and Communications.
Sinha says that for international tourism, luxury cars and other premium products, only in some areas, such as wealthy Indians, were recovered from premature goods and services. But the demand for widely used products, such as soap, shampoo and biscuits, was low and fell further in the last quarter.
Amar, who has been working in the mobile sales sector at the height of India for nine years, found that after pandemic illness, after selling mobile phones and data projects, friends and colleagues were fired and finding new jobs difficult. Gone.

‘Limit’ up to government spending
In the past decade, it has been in power, the government -led government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has spent funds on the construction of highways, bridges and other major infrastructure projects to create development and employment. But this is no longer possible in view of the goals of financial spending.
“There is a limit to the development of the government,” says Nikhil Gupta, chief economist of Moti Lal Oswal Securities, a Mumbai -based security firm. “We’re putting a lot of burden on the government by expecting to increase its development.”
India’s private sector investment in construction capacity has been declining despite reducing tax rates in business.
Sinha says corporate expenses will only come with the display of demand, which has been weak.
This Titup walk has also increased hard to encourage demand without expenditure with the new administration in the United States.
“The government will remain on it [fiscal deficit] Since the target wants to indicate confidence that its costs are under control, especially when the capital is fluctuating the capital due to changes in policies around the world, “Professional Services firm, Dilit India, says Romaki Majumdar. Yes.

Trump’s threat
Foreign investors sold more than $ 8 billion shares in Indian stock markets in January when President Donald Trump took office, as the dollar strengthened and Trump promised to support US business when other countries made noise. What During this period, India’s foreign currency reserves also fell.
The Trump administration has threatened taxes against imports and has questioned the need for H-1B visas for highly skilled professionals, which can affect India’s technology sector.
“There is a very dynamic, visible debate in the Trump camp on skilled worker visas. Therefore, it would be too soon to predict how it will end,” India’s chair and emerging Asian economies say the Center Think tank based in the Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington, DC.
Trump’s prices on Chinese products can move manufacturing India, efforts that India is trying to encourage the trade war between Washington, DC and Beijing in the last few years. However, New Delhi has had a mixed success.
“US pressure to reduce more dependence on Chinese manufacturing has helped invest in some technology manufacturing in areas such as semiconductors and solar manufacturing. But one expects that under Trump, India cannot expect that the US government In these sectors, the ‘Friends’ will be attracted to India to India. [federal] And the state level, “Rossu said.
Sinha says many such obstacles for investors, including land acquisition, water and electricity supply, are now in the hands of state governments, many of which have made election SOPs. What is the issue of high unemployment and weak demand for consumers, such as cash handouts. This has potentially affected the state finance deficit.

For example, Salgonkar says it has taken advantage of a Maharashtra government scheme that gives women cash of Rs 1,500 ($ 17) a month. It has helped maintain a domestic uncertain budget.
But Moti Lal Oswal’s Gupta says, “We have to ask, are these schemes necessary? On what basis are these schemes designed? Are they just a political tool? Struggle, we don’t like it and There is a limit to the extent to which they can promote development.
A project is required
Sinha says if state governments spend on capital costs, such as small -scale road building, this can lead to more jobs than the union government’s major infrastructure projects, which are rapidly mechanized.
The government says the government also needs to improve labor, land, capital access to promote production, which will help create jobs.
Moti Lal Oswal’s Gupta says India’s growing construction sector, which is also its second largest employer after agriculture, can also promote the budget.
Although there has been some debate about whether the income tax rates can be relieved, the economists do not fully agree that this can increase India’s lower middle class demand.
Although the demand for slowdown in the economy has been a growing problem, Sitaraman has said that slow behavior is “not systematic”. He said that in the last quarter, it was facing slowdown due to a slowdown in public investment in the election year, during which governments were spent to affect the election results of the Election Commission of India. Has been stopped. Sitaraman expects growth in the next quarter to be restored.
Salgunkar has his prescription for Sitarman: low prices, increasing the ability to buy jobs, or both.
In October, inflation increased by 6.2 %, which rose to 14 months and the central bank’s target is 4 % further and Salgonkar increased wheat, cooking gas and clothing among other essential goods. Talking about prices while revenue in his home has declined.
Although investing in physical infrastructure despite financial obstacles is likely to continue, ANZ’s Gupta says, “I think it is to establish a vision and roadmap to improve India’s human capital. [by improving skills and education] There will be a welcome move. This can be the only long -term way to promote growth in the most populous country and the world’s fifth largest economy.