Today, six climate agencies around the world confirmed what we knew was coming: Earth once again experienced its hottest year on record.

But whether or not this is more than 1.5C above the pre-industrial average depends on which climate agency you look at.

According to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, 2024 was the warmest year on record since 1850, 1.6°C above the pre-industrial average (1850–1900). It overtook 2023 as the warmest year on record, which was 1.48C warmer than the pre-industrial average.

However, according to NASA, 2024 was 1.47 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial average, which has hovered around 1.5 degrees Celsius ever since.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) found it was 1.46 degrees Celsius warmer.

Berkeley Earth, a non-profit climate analysis organization, also found that 2024 was 1.62 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial average.

Numbers vary among agencies because of the way weather agencies collect past data.

However, the World Meteorological Organization looked at all these analyses, plus those from the UK’s Met Office and the Japan Meteorological Agency, and found that we are “likely” to have exceeded 1.5C in 2024.

But what is agreed upon is that the past 10 years have been the warmest on record.

Although this may be the first calendar year to exceed the 1.5 C threshold The Paris AgreementThis does not mean that we have broken the contract. That limit – a commitment by 195 countries to keep global warming below 1.5C above the pre-industrial average – applies to many years where the Earth’s temperature is consistently above that, not just one or two.

And it also doesn’t mean there’s no hope of keeping the heat moving forward. As climate scientists often say, “Every part of the degree matters.“

This is not the first 12-month period of heat above this threshold. From mid-2023 to mid-2024, the planet was 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer. It’s just that it didn’t happen in a calendar year.

Does 1.5 really matter?

While there may be some disagreement about the exact degree of warming — only to hundredths of a degree — the message is the same: Earth is getting warmer.

“What we can say, I think, is that 2024 is likely to have breached the 1.5 threshold,” said Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. “However, the effects we’re seeing, if it’s like 1.48 or 1.52 or 1.6 you know, they’re pretty much the same.”

“We’re seeing increased rainfall intensity, we’re seeing increased heat waves, we’re seeing rising sea levels. All of these things don’t really depend on the little details of that last decade,” said Schmidt

According to the World Weather Association (WWA), climate-related disasters contributed to the deaths of at least 3,700 people and the displacement of millions in 26 weather events in 2024.

In its December report, the WWA noted that, “These were only a small fraction of the 219 events that met our trigger criteria, which identify the most impactful weather events. It is likely that the total number of deaths due to climate change is in the tens or millions this year.”

When will we know we have crossed the threshold of the Paris Agreement?

While 2024 began with high temperatures, fueled by El Niño — a natural, cyclical warming in a region of the Pacific Ocean that, combined with the atmosphere, could cause global temperatures to rise — 2025 Not so for

“This year, 2025, we’re starting with kind of a soft landing year, a little bit cooler,” Schmidt said. “So it’s going to be the opposite between 2025 and 2024: we’re starting at a cooler level. So we expect 2025 to be cooler than 2024 but probably not much.”

Instead of an El Nino, we’re starting with a La Nina advisory, which could lower global temperatures slightly.

Even if 2025 brings a cool year, the trend is that Earth’s temperature will continue to rise.

But knowing when we pass the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 C limit is difficult.

“It’s commonly interpreted, including the most recent (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report, to mean pre-industrial from 1850 to 1900, and to pass the target,” Zeke said. “The 20-year period average is more than 1.5 degrees,” Zeke said. Hausfather, a research scientist Berkeley Earth.

“The problem with that definition is that we won’t actually know when we’re past 1.5 degrees until 10 years after we’re past 1.5 degrees, which is not a very useful definition,” he said. “

But Hausfader noted that climate scientists are trying to find a better way to make that determination sooner.

Still, he said, “we’re probably going to pass 1.5 degrees strongly in the next five to 10 years.”

And while it can be tiring to hear that another year is headed for the record books no matter where he sits, Schmidt said there’s a reason.

“It’s the same story every year or so, because the long-term trends are driven by our fossil fuel emissions, and they haven’t stopped,” he said. “Until they stop, we’ll continue to have the same conversation. And so, do I feel like a broken record? Yes, I do, because we keep breaking records.”

As for Hassfather, he too is concerned about the continuing rising temperature trend.

“Climate is a fierce beast,” he said. “We should stop beating him with sticks.”