An Israeli official said Hezbollah has scattered its weapons across Lebanon – the country is “on paper” with them – and has been using them to fire mainly into northern Israel since last October.

Israel was carrying out attacks in southern Lebanon, forcing tens of thousands of Lebanese to flee. But Israeli leaders decided around Sept. 17 to destroy as many of the weapons as possible, so that the 60,000 or so Israelis who had fled northern Israel because of the incessant fire could return, two Israeli officials said. told The Israeli Air Force launched devastating strikes the following week.

It took an estimated three decades for Hezbollah to develop most of its stockpile with Iranian help Anywhere from 120,000 to 200,000 projectiles. After the initial attacks, Hassan NasrallahIsraeli officials and a US official said the Hezbollah leader asked Iran and Syria to supply the weapons. It contributed to Israel’s decision to try to assassinate Mr. Nasrallah.

US officials say that since Mr. Nasrallah’s death last Friday, Lebanese officials have heeded Israeli demands that they try to fly Iranian planes into Beirut, prompting Hezbollah Trying to get additional weapons early has become complicated.

On Tuesday, the Israeli military said it had killed a Hezbollah commander in charge of transferring weapons from Iran to Lebanon. Mohammad Jafar QasirIn an airstrike in Beirut.

U.S. officials say Hezbollah’s attacks on northern Israel, which began a day after Hamas launched its own devastating offensive in southern Israel on October 7, were a response to Israel’s war in Gaza. He said that if Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hezbollah had stopped Yahya SanwarThe head of Hamas had agreed to a ceasefire.

But the US, Qatar and Egypt have failed to reach a ceasefire agreement in Gaza this year after several rounds of diplomacy.

On Monday, Israel began a ground operation in Lebanon. Israeli forces plan to destroy Hezbollah’s missile caches and launch vehicles, officials said.

Both Israeli officials say they plan to target Hezbollah weapons and kill the group’s commanders as long as they have the momentum. White House officials have said they hope ground infiltration is limited, and President Biden has called for a ceasefire on both sides. Hundreds of Lebanese citizens have been killed in Israeli attacks. A million have been displaced..

“We are committed to returning our residents to their homes safely in the north,” Mr Netanyahu said on Tuesday.

Despite Hezbollah’s large arsenal of missiles and rockets, its fighters have not fired large amounts of shelling into central Israel.

Part of the reason, U.S. officials say, is that a series of Israeli strikes, culminating in an airstrike outside Beirut last Friday that killed Mr. Nasrallah, severely damaged the group’s command and control structure. This left a few senior people to give orders to the lower ranks. Warrior

Officials say the group may also be waiting for a signal from Iranian officials, who helped build weapons against any possible Israeli attack on Iran. If Hezbollah uses up most of its remaining weapons and is unable to replenish them, that deterrence is lost.

And Hezbollah, with its much more powerful weapons, may prefer to retaliate against Iran itself. In April, Iran fired more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel in response to a deadly attack on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria. Almost all of them were shot down by Israel, the US and partner countries in the region.

In the Middle East, on Tuesday night, the Iranian military fired ballistic missiles at Israel. Air raid sirens blared across the country, and residents saw defensive interceptor missiles flying overhead. Iran’s mission to the United Nations said on social media that the attack was in response to “terrorist acts” by Israel that violated Iran’s “sovereignty.”

Some Israeli and U.S. officials said they believed Israel had successfully established deterrence with Iran through a strike that followed Israel’s barrage against Iran in April. In a follow-up attack, Israel One or more S-300 anti-aircraft batteries were damaged American officials said that the Iranian army had tightened the siege around the ancient city of Isfahan.

Such a strike, together with Israeli assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in JulyThe political leader of Hamas, while in Tehran for a state funeral, revealed that Israel could strike into the heart of Iran – and possibly kill Iranian leaders.

Some US officials asserted that the sudden Israeli campaign had crippled Hezbollah’s top ranks. His leadership has been undermined not only by the assassination of Mr. Nasrallah, but also by pager blasts and other attacks that have killed and wounded senior and middle-ranking leaders over the past three weeks.

U.S. officials say Hezbollah’s entire special operations command, known as the Rizwan Force, was wiped out in a Sept. 20 airstrike that targeted Hezbollah’s military operations in a southern suburb of Beirut. Ibrahim Aqeel, the head of the group, was killed.

On Monday, after Mr. Nasrallah’s death, Hezbollah’s acting leader, Naim Qassem, said that contingency plans were in place to ensure that replacement commanders could step in if something happened to the group’s leaders. are

The latest wave of Israeli airstrikes 1,300 targets were hit on Sept. 23, including long-range cruise missiles, heavy rockets and drone sites, said Daniel Hagari, an Israeli military spokesman.

Still, U.S. officials say it’s an open question whether Israel’s actions can be turned into a strategic advantage. How long Israel stays in southern Lebanon, how deeply Iran engages in counterattacks, what Hezbollah does to respond, and which political forces gain influence in Beirut all factor into the long-term outcome. will be

Israel violently and unsuccessfully occupied Lebanon from 1982 to 2000, giving birth to Hezbollah.

Some US officials view the situation, particularly in the long term, with skepticism. They do not believe that a military campaign in Lebanon can deter Hezbollah for long.

The group has a tunnel infrastructure that would be impossible to destroy absent a long-term presence in the country, which Israeli officials say they are reluctant to retake. The tunnels are dug deep into the rock beneath southern Lebanon and are difficult to hit by airstrikes. Some parts of the network are large enough for large military equipment to pass through.

Even more pessimistic, U.S. officials say, even if Nasrallah were a singular and charismatic leader, mid-level and even top military commanders would be easily replaced.

While Mr. Nasrallah appears wary of ordering major attacks on Israel after the massive destruction in the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war, a new leader may not share the same sense of caution.

Evan Ward Contributed reporting from Beirut.