New Delhi:

In the wake of Iran’s unprecedented drone and missile strikes against Israel, the region finds itself on the brink of a potentially catastrophic conflict. With sirens blaring and explosions echoing over Jerusalem, the long-running secret war between Iran and Israel has fueled fears of further tension and instability.

To shed light on the complex dynamics at play, NDTV spoke to Simon Mabon, Professor of International Politics at Lancaster University and author of several books on the Middle East, to understand the status quo and what the future holds for the region. .

Regional growth

Iran had previously threatened to retaliate against Israel following an April 1 airstrike on its consulate in Damascus, which killed seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers, including two generals.

Professor Mabon highlighted the impact of Israel’s targeted attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus. The attack has significantly destabilized the region, creating an uncertain environment full of uncertainty.

“The Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus has had a dramatic impact on regional politics in creating a more uncertain, more volatile environment in the region. The direct attack by Israel resulted in the death of senior members of the IRGC and severe Condemned by top Iranian figures, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,” Prof. Mabon told NDTV.

“This has raised serious concerns among many in Israel, the United States and beyond about Iranian retaliation against Israel. But it could take many different forms. Iran feels that its long-standing support It is under pressure to react because of the Palestinian cause and long-standing opposition to the state of Israel.

The Iranian military announced that its drone and missile strikes on Israel had hit all the intended targets.

As a result of being the de facto leader of the “Axis of Resistance,” Iran finds itself somewhat in a bind here. Since the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979, it has been very careful not to escalate tensions. But at the same time, with Israel, it’s forced to retaliate in some way,” said Professor Mabon.

Possible Israeli response

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said today that his country has been preparing for a direct attack by Iran for years and will “harm” anyone who harms them.

“Israel has said it will respond if there is a direct attack from Iranian soil,” Professor Mabon said.

United States President Joe Biden, Israel’s staunchest ally, has pledged “ironclad” support for Israel. Historically, Israel’s tough stance on attacks on its territory has indicated that any direct attack from Iranian soil would be met with a swift response. Despite de-escalation being a priority, the potential for conflict remains high, especially as Israel considers its next move.

“Nobody wants an escalation right now, but the decision of the war cabinet in Israel is absolutely critical to what happens next. Whether Netanyahu decides that deterrence comes from the ability to stop a massive attack. According to the enormous economic cost of billions of dollars, it is enough to say to Israel’s rivals, ‘Look, we will stop you, no matter what.’

In a volatile region, even the slightest mistake can lead to catastrophic spikes with far-reaching consequences.

“What will Israel do next? Will the Iranian attacks provoke another response? The Iranians are very interested in saying it has nothing to do with America,” he said.

Pressure on Netanyahu

Earlier this year, thousands of Israelis rallied in Jerusalem, demanding the release of prisoners held in Gaza and increased action to oust Netanyahu.

About 250 hostages were taken by Hamas militants during attacks on Israel on October 7 that fueled the conflict. Israel estimates that 130 people, including 33 dead, are still imprisoned in Gaza.

“Since October 7, Netanyahu’s leadership and his coalition have doubled down on their hard-line stance on negotiations with Palestinian leaders. Until the hostages are released, Netanyahu will continue to push for a Palestinian state. “We will not negotiate with the Palestinian leadership to discuss the future.” Currently the talks are about releasing the hostages in pursuit of a ceasefire,” Prof Mabon said.

“Another thing worth noting here is that Netanyahu’s political future is on the line if he is removed from power, which is growing in light of the widespread protests against his rule and his leadership. “What they are facing. Want to double down on their position because they see it as a way to stay in power,” he added.

Prospects for regional peace

The prospects for peace talks between Israel and Hamas look increasingly bleak amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran.

Palestinian militant group Hamas has rejected the latest proposal by international mediators for a ceasefire in Gaza, Israel’s spy agency Mossad said today.

Egypt, Qatar, and the United States have previously acted as mediators in negotiations, yet a viable agreement has proved elusive. Mediators aimed to secure a ceasefire before the start of Ramadan, but progress stalled.

“Public calls for a cease-fire have increased, but until the United States openly calls for a cease-fire and condemns the actions of the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) in Gaza, the Israelis can ignore this “noise.” are, can avoid it, said Professor Mabon.

Post-conflict reconstruction

In Gaza, which has seen constant bombardment by Israeli forces since the October 7 attacks, post-conflict reconstruction of the region stands as a monumental task, fraught with multifaceted challenges and complexities.

“Conflict recovery and reconstruction is an incredibly challenging task. Post-conflict reconstruction is much more expensive and much more challenging. People suffer from destruction, loss of livelihoods, families and both mental and physical injuries. dealing with, and putting them all together you get an incredibly tense environment,” said Professor Mabon.

“Then there’s the added economic burden – who’s going to pay for the reconstruction because there’s no money in Gaza or Palestine at the moment. The Palestinian economy is devastated by what’s happening, especially the Gazan economy. Therefore, there are many challenges in terms of reconstruction in Gaza.

Since the Israelis began their assault on Gaza, an estimated 33,686 people have died in the besieged Palestinian enclave.