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Russia has sought to forge closer ties with North Korea, China, Iran, Syria for military and equipment support in its fight against the US, UK and European countries who have been providing financial aid and weapons to Ukraine. India has called for peace between the…Read More
China also backed Russia’s claim that it launched its assault against Ukraine in 2022 because of Western provocations. (AP Photo)
Russia striking Ukraine with a new intermediate-range ballistic missile on November 21 in response to Kyiv’s use of US-made advanced weapons against Russian territory is a new escalation in the 33-month-old war.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a televised address, said Moscow struck Ukraine with a new medium-range, hypersonic ballistic missile (Oreshnik) and warned that more could follow.
The move comes days after outgoing President Joe Biden allowed Ukraine to strike Russia with six US-made ATACMS on November 19 and with British Storm Shadow missiles and US-made HIMARS.
Report suggest that thousands of North Korean troops are being trained in Russia, who could have been deployed in Ukraine, as the latest sign of military cooperation between the allies.
So, is this the official start of World War 3? Which countries are supporting Putin and who are on Ukraine’s side? What is India’s position? Let us understand these aspects in detail.
‘World War 3 Has Started’
Former commander-in-chief of Ukraine and current ambassador to the UK, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, has claimed that World War 3 has begun, with the direct involvement of Russia’s allies.
“I believe that in 2024, we can absolutely assume that World War III has begun,” Zaluzhnyi said. He stressed Ukraine is no longer fighting Russia alone. “Ukraine is facing soldiers from North Korea. Let’s be honest. Iranian-made Shaheds [loitering munitions] are killing civilians in Ukraine quite openly. Missiles made in North Korea are being launched onto Ukraine, and they are openly declaring this. Chinese-made shells are exploding in Ukraine, and Chinese parts are used in Russian missiles,” The Kyiv Independent quoted Zaluzhnyi as saying.
Zaluzhnyi was removed from his military position in February amid reported disagreements with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy over war strategies. Zaluzhnyi maintains that the Russia-Ukraine war could be stopped “on the territory of Ukraine”.
Who Are Russia’s Allies And How Are They Supporting Putin?
Russia has sought forge closer ties with old and new allies, including those in the Middle East, Africa and Eastern Europe. CNN reported that the growing anti-West sentiment is “creating a much broader, urgent security threat — one where partnerships of convenience are evolving into more outright military ties”.
North Korea: Reports suggest that North Korean soldiers taking military training in Russia under a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty that both the countries have signed. The trained Korean soldiers have been deployed in Ukraine to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russian forces have also become increasingly reliant on millions of rounds of North Korean artillery shells and ballistic missiles. A Guardian report suggests that the Ukraine war would enable North Korea to test the abilities of both its soldiers and weapons, while also gaining “income and assistance to its missile and nuclear programmes from Russia”, said Gabriel Jonsson, associate professor of Korean studies at Stockholm University.
China: Both Russia and China, who are “two continent-sized authoritarian states” are increasingly in dispute with NATO as they “seek to gain influence in Africa, the Middle East and South America”, according to The Associated Press. China also backed Russia’s claim that it launched its assault against Ukraine in 2022 because of Western provocations. Recently, CNN has said China has been accused of “powering Russia’s war machine” with substantial amounts of “dual-use goods” like microelectronics and machine tools, which can be used to make weapons. “We see the role of UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones] and other capacities that are penetrating the Ukrainian airspace. Much of that has been supported surreptitiously by China, and it raises real concerns,” Voice of America quoted US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell as saying. In October 2023, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov admitted “basically all” civilian drones came from China. Chinese President Xi Jinping has repeatedly stressed strategic cooperation with Russia as part of a “no-limits” partnership that last year delivered a record $240 billion (£185 billion) in bilateral trade.
Iran: Although Russia and Iran are no formal allies and they sit on opposite sides of ideology, the two countries have drawn closer, united in their opposition to the United States. The Iranian government shares the Kremlin’s deep distrust of anything Western, and during a phone call at the outset of the full-scale invasion, former Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi told Putin: “NATO expansion is a serious threat to the stability and security of independent countries in different regions.” In December 2022, the US pointed out the developing relationship between Iran and Russia involving equipment such as helicopters, fighter jets and kamikaze drones. These drones were used to attack Ukrainian cities, and it was reported that they are being smuggled into Russia using boats and Iran’s state airline. The December 2023 free-trade agreement between Tehran and the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union signalled a new phase in cooperation between the two countries. In September 2024, The Wall Street Journal reported the transfer of short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, “a move that gives Moscow another potent military tool in its war against Ukraine and follows stern Western warnings not to provide those arms to Moscow”. With tensions rising between the US and Iran-backed proxies across the region, Russia and Iran are “nearly on the same page when it comes to navigating different regional conflicts, from Ukraine to Syria and Afghanistan”, said TRT World.
Syria: President Bashar al-Assad has praised the full-scale invasion by Russia as a “correction of history” and accused Western nations of using “dirty methods to support terrorists in Syria and Nazis in Ukraine”. Assad sought Russia’s help to suppress a popular uprising in Syria which led to a 12-year civil war. Russia established a permanent military presence at naval and air bases in Syria in 2017, with smaller deployments prior to that.
Belarus: Formerly part of the Soviet Union, Belarus is Russia’s closest and most devoted ally. Ruled by authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus has been called a “puppet state” controlled from Moscow by many. Russia used Belarus territory as a “springboard” to send its troops into Ukraine in February 2022, said The Associated Press, and “has maintained its military bases and weapons there, although Belarusian troops have not taken part in the war”. But despite his obvious affinity with Putin, Lukashenko has also been playing a “skilful balancing act”, said geopolitical forecasting website GIS.
Who Is On Ukraine’s Side?
United States: The US is the biggest provider of military assistance to Ukraine since the start of the war. The total level of military assistance provided by the US since the start of the Joe Biden administration stands at $61 billion. Although the incoming Donald Trump administration has promised to end the war once he takes over as President, Biden had last week approved the use of ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) by Ukraine against Russia, escalating the matter. On November 20, the US announced another $275 million worth of assistance of the 70th tranche of military aid to Ukraine. Pentagon said in a statement that the US has provided Ukraine ammunition for HIMARS, artillery, anti-tank systems, UAVs and other equipment.
United Kingdom: After the US and Germany, the UK is one of the leading donors to Ukraine. To date, the UK has pledged £12.8 billion in support to Ukraine since February 2022, of which £7.8 billion is for military assistance. This includes £3 billion for military assistance in 2024-25. According to a UK Parliament report, the UK is providing both lethal and non-lethal weaponry, including tanks, air defence systems and long-range precision strike missiles to Ukraine. While the UK has committed to training Ukrainian fast jet pilots, combat fighter aircraft will not be provided. Over 45,000 Ukrainian personnel have been trained under ‘Operation Interflex’ hosted by the UK and supported by several allies.
NATO And The European Union: NATO has been helping the Ukrainian government and supporting the delivery of humanitarian and non-lethal aid through its pre-existing Comprehensive Assistance Package. In July 2024, NATO decided to take on greater military assistance and training among NATO allies with the US-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group. Allies also agreed to a “minimum baseline funding of €40 billion [for Ukraine military assistance] within the next year”.
European Union (EU) is also providing non-lethal and lethal arms and training to Ukraine through its European Peace Facility (EPF). his is the first time the bloc has, in its history, approved the supply of lethal weapons to a third country. To date, the EU has committed €11.1 billion of EPF funding for military support to Ukraine, including €5 billion for a dedicated Ukraine Assistance Fund which was agreed in March 2024.
Turkey: NATO member Turkey has been trying to strike a balancing act between Ukraine and Russia. Turkey supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and has provided it with armed drones and other military support, but it also does not want to miff Russia. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has repeatedly discussed brokering further discussions between the two warring states. Turkey has supplied Ukraine with Bayraktar TB2 drones, heavy machine guns, laser-guided missiles, electronic warfare systems, armoured vehicles and protective gear. Of Turkey’s total $5.5 billion defence and aviation exports in 2023, 5.5% went to Ukraine. The Black Sea grain initiative, negotiated in July 2022 between Turkey, the UN and Russia to ensure that Ukraine could export grain via the Bosphorus, has also been impacted due to the war. Russia’s defence ministry has in effect said any ship leaving a Ukrainian port will be a legitimate military target.
Latin America: In 2023, a change in Russia’s foreign policy of 2016 placed an enormous focus on Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and Africa, where the Kremlin has been building influence since the Soviet era. Russia’s strategic goal is to counter the US presence in the neighbourhood and to ensure that Latin America and the Caribbean remain geopolitically neutral. Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela are Russia’s main security partners in LAC. All three countries have signed security and military cooperation agreements with Russia focusing on equipment sales, maintenance support, training, naval and air deployments, and intelligence. However, despite Russian propaganda, Russia’s image in Latin America has suffered due to the war of aggression against Ukraine. According to a 2024 report by the Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD), there has been a 15 % decrease in positive perception towards Russia in Latin America since the Russian invasion of Crimea, according to a European Parliament document.
What Is India’s Position In Ukraine War?
Addressing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Ukraine in August, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar had said that India’s stance in the Ukraine war was never neutral, and “it is India’s view that the two sides need to engage with each other to find a solution.”
PM Modi’s one-day ‘historic’ visit to war-hit Ukraine marked the first by an Indian PM since 1991.
Furthermore, Jaishankar also revealed that Modi spoke about his recent discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. “PM Modi sought Ukraine President’s assessment both of ground situation and diplomatic scenario; Zelenskyy spoke on both issues,” EAM said.
Since the beginning of Russian operations in Ukraine, India has remained distant from the outcomes of what minister Jaishankar had once called “Europe’s war” and any peace process that does not involve bringing Russia and Ukraine to the table for talks.
While PM Modi has consistently said India is “on the side of peace alone”, New Delhi has been seen partial to Moscow, given its historical ties and energy dependencies.
Last year in February, India abstained in the UN General Assembly on a resolution that underscored the need to reach as soon as possible a “comprehensive, just and lasting peace” in Ukraine in line with the principles of the UN Charter. The resolution received 141 votes in favour and seven against, while India was among the 32 countries that abstained.
