The head of Hezbollah before his death Hassan Nasrallah He made a plan for how this group would confront Israel. He had calculated a delicate balance – to avoid an all-out war engulfing Lebanon while supporting Hamas in its struggle against Israel. “Some people in Lebanon say we are taking a risk. But that risk is part of a worthwhile, accurate calculation.” He asserted in a video from an undisclosed location that he has confidence in his voice.

But as days turned to weeks after Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel in October last year, Nasrallah’s books began to unravel. Israel, driven by domestic pressure and a desperate desire to reclaim its northern border, launched a series of targeted attacks on Hezbollah. Each airstrike not only destroyed infrastructure but also shattered the myth of invincibility. Hezbollah What was cultivated?

Rumors of deep Israeli intelligence infiltration of Hezbollah’s ranks spread, threatening the group. As Nasrallah watched the chaos unfold, he felt the weight of his every decision. To create a leadership vacuum within Hezbollah, Israel continued to target senior members of the terrorist group.

Failed calculations

The past two weeks have highlighted how Nasrallah’s calculation failed.As Israel carried out a series of precision strikes inside Lebanon. The campaign has already maimed 1,500 Hezbollah fighters with exploding pagers and walkie-talkies and killed several top leaders.

Nasrallah has avoided public appearances since the 2006 war. According to sources familiar with Nasrallah’s security arrangements, he was kept under guard for long periods of time, his movements were limited and the circle of people he saw was very small. According to the Reuters news agency, the killing suggested that his group had been infiltrated by informants for Israel.

The Way Forward for Hezbollah

Along with Nasrallah, Israel’s military says it has killed eight of Hezbollah’s nine top military commanders this year, mostly in the past week. These commanders led units ranging from the Rocket Division to the elite Rizwan Force.

But the group, whose name means Party of God, is expected to fight back: According to US and Israeli estimates, it had about 40,000 fighters before the current tensions, as well as a large stockpile of weapons and Israeli military equipment. There was an extensive network of tunnels near the border.