The leader of Hezbollah for the past 32 years, Hassan NasrallahHe was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut, the capital of Lebanon on Friday evening.

The Israeli military has claimed that Hezbollah’s southern front commander Ali Karki and other Hezbollah commanders were killed in a major airstrike on Beirut’s southern suburb of Dahiya.

Just over a week ago, Israel also killed a senior Hezbollah commander. Ibrahim Aqil These events in Beirut come just two months after Hamas’ political bureau chief. Ismail HaniyaKilled by Israel in Iran.

Among them, the deaths of Nasrallah and other leaders are unprecedented. Attacks on Lebanon And during the mass A blast of pagers And handheld radios belonging to Hezbollah commanders earlier this month have left the group facing a potential power vacuum.

Israel hailed it as a major victory, but observers fear it could escalate tensions between Israel and Iran, which supports Hezbollah. So what happens next?

Who was Hassan Nasrallah?

Nasrallah, 64, became Hezbollah’s third secretary-general in 1992, when his predecessor Abbas al-Mousavi was killed by Israeli missiles.

Hezbollah (Arabic for God’s party) is one. Iran-backed groups Formed in 1982 to fight Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon. It finds most support among Shia Muslims.

Nasrallah reached the height of his popularity after the war with Israel and Lebanon in 2006. His speeches, which combined political and religious elements, also contributed to his wide appeal.

However, critics have also seen Nasrallah as the leader of a Shia group fighting for Iranian interests, particularly when he sent fighters to Syria to help crush a 2011 uprising against President Bashar al-Assad, an Iranian ally. were

Since Israel’s war on Gaza began in October 2023, Nasrallah has made televised speeches in support of Hamas, while Hezbollah has exchanged cross-border missiles with Israel. In this Last speech on September 19He addressed the pager attacks in Lebanon.

What do we know about Israel’s attack on Nasrallah?

• On Friday evening, Israel carried out airstrikes on the densely populated Harit Harik neighborhood in the Dahiya area of ​​South Beirut. It continued until early Saturday, forcing thousands of residents to leave the area.
• On Saturday, Israeli forces said they struck Hezbollah’s headquarters and killed Nasrallah.
• After hours of speculation, Hezbollah confirmed Nasrallah’s death.
• At least 11 people were killed and 108 injured in the attacks, according to Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health.
• Israeli media say about 85 so-called “bunker-buster” bombs were used in Friday’s attack. Also known as “ground penetration munitions”, these missiles fall deep into the ground before detonation and weigh between 2,000 and 4,000 pounds (900-1,800 kg) each. The Geneva Convention outlaws their use in densely populated areas. Dahiya is a dense neighborhood in Beirut, and Israeli missiles destroyed several residential buildings.

Who will be Nasrallah’s successor and how will it be decided?

Hezbollah’s seven-to-eight-member Shura Council is expected to meet to decide who will now lead the party.

Hashim SafiuddinThe head of Hezbollah’s executive council is believed to be involved in the selection of the group’s new secretary general.

As head of the Executive Council, Safiuddin oversees Hezbollah’s political affairs. He also sits on the Jihad Council, which manages the group’s military operations, and is Nasrallah’s uncle.

After the recent pager blasts in Israel, Safiuddin said Israel has launched a “new confrontation” and the response to the attack will be a “special punishment”.

How has Hezbollah responded to the latest attacks?

In a statement on Saturday, in which it confirmed Nasrallah’s death, Hezbollah said it would continue its military operations in support of Gaza and in defense of Lebanon.

According to Al Jazeera’s Imran Khan, reporting from Marjeun in Lebanon, Nasrallah launched five rocket attacks into northern Israel after the announcement that he had been killed.

Will the assassination of Nasrallah weaken Hezbollah?

Although Hezbollah has been hit hard in the short term, analysts say it is unlikely that the group will be badly affected in the long term because one leader can be replaced by another and the group has its own strength. Maintains vast military arsenal and strength.

Tehran University professor Mohammad Marandi said Beirut is considered Hezbollah’s “weakest point” because it is home to Western embassies and people affiliated with Western intelligence agencies. However, overall, “Israel does not have the capability to defeat Hezbollah militarily”, Marandi told Al Jazeera.

Analysts say the group now faces a strategic choice between a temporary leadership vacuum rather than a complete blow to its survival.

Yazid Sayegh, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Program, said Hezbollah is not going to disappear. He added that Iran would exercise “strategic restraint” even if it no longer scrambles to defend them.

However, experts believe that Hezbollah has made other mistakes that have weakened it vis-à-vis Israel.

“The big mistake Hezbollah has made is to allow the Iranians to use them too much as a proxy,” said Sultan Barkat, a senior professor of public policy at Hamad Bin Khalifa University. “Hezbollah was very effective when it fought for the freedom of the land of Lebanon – for its people.”

However, over the past year, Iran has given them little agency in how to use their weapons, while the group has misjudged how much violence Israel is willing to inflict not only on the people of Gaza but also on the Lebanese people. is ready Well, he told Al Jazeera.

Is this a victory for Israel?

At the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Friday – before the latest attacks – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had a key message when he told members: “We are winning.” Qin is hailing the attack as a major victory.

Experts largely agree that Israel will continue its aggression.

“Israel believes it has momentum after Nasrallah’s death and will want to make the most of the leadership vacuum,” Ali Rizk, a security and policy analyst, told Al Jazeera on Saturday.

According to Muhammad al-Masri at the Doha Institute of Graduate Studies, the perceived success of his attack on Hezbollah may also sway domestic public opinion in Netanyahu’s favor.

“The Israelis who were opposing Netanyahu were against his failures in Gaza, his inability to eliminate Hamas and bring the hostages back home, but they were not an anti-war crowd,” Almasri said.

However, Israel will not necessarily achieve its stated goals of ending resistance and establishing peace. Al-Masri told Al Jazeera that in the past, the escalating attacks have fueled greater resistance to them and opposition to Israel.

According to Elijah Magnier, a military analyst in Brussels, a sustained offensive would also require a steady supply of US munitions. In his first statement after the assassination, United States President Joe Biden said Washington supported Israel’s military strikes against Hezbollah, and called Nasrallah’s killing “justice” for the hundreds of Americans he killed. He blamed Hezbollah for the murder.

What will Iran respond?

While Nasrallah’s death has heightened fears of an Iranian response, experts say the country now faces an even more delicate balancing act between standing with Israel and avoiding the spread of war in the region.

“Iran will likely not opt ​​for any kind of escalation,” Rizk said. He added that the country would likely seek “proxies, including allies in Iraq and Yemen,” before entering into any direct conflict with Israel. will continue his usual style of “fighting through”.

Iranian President Masoud Pezhashkian issued a statement on Saturday on Nasrallah’s killing, saying it would “further strengthen the resistance”.

He added that the international community will not forget that the order for this “terrorist attack” was issued from New York, possibly referring to Netanyahu’s presence at the United Nations General Assembly on Friday.

Pyzhashkian also said that the United States cannot deny involvement in Nasrallah’s killing because it has continued to supply Israel with weapons and military aid since the war on Gaza began nearly a year ago.