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It’s been almost two weeks now. Joe Biden backed off. and endorsed by the 2024 presidential race. Kamala Harris As a possible alternative to him as the Democratic nominee. Not surprisingly, Harris caught on quickly Bounce in the polls As the new, younger and fresher competitor of Donald Trump. But now it’s becoming clear that this was a trend, not just a momentary blip.

According to Five thirty-eight national polling averagesHarris leads Trump by 1.4 percent (45.0 to 43.6 percent), Robert F. Kennedy Jr. by 5.6 percent. When Biden withdrew, he trailed the same average by 3.2 percent. In a contest as stable as the 2024 presidential race, that’s a big swing.

The trend lines in national elections are equally telling. YouGov/Economist conducted a July 16 test of Harris against Trump, showing Trump ahead. Five percent (44 to 39 percent). Then on July 23After Biden withdrew, the same pollster had Trump leading Harris by three percentage points (44 to 41 percent). On July 30 YouGov/Economist showed Harris leading Trump by two percentage points (46 to 44 percent). Similarly, RMG Research showed Trump ahead of Harris by two points (48 to 46 percent). July 23Trump has a five-point lead (47 to 42 percent) with Harris. July 31.

Polls comparing the Harris-Trump matchup to the Biden-Trump matchup mostly show the same pro-Democratic trend. On July 17 Morning Consult Tracking Pool Trump had a four-point lead over Biden (46 percent to 42 percent). The same poll was held on July 24. Harris is leading Trump. one point (46 percent to 45 percent). On July 16 Reuters-Apsos Trump led Biden by two points (43 percent to 41 percent). The same poll was conducted on July 23. Harris leads by two points. (44 percent to 42 percent). On July 2 New York times-Siena Trump led Biden by six points (49 percent to 43 percent). On July 24, this pollster showed Trump leads Harris by one point. (48 percent to 47 percent). Likewise on July 2 Wall Street Journal On July 25, Trump led Biden by six points (48 to 42 percent) and Harris by just two points, 49 to 47 percent. TimesSiena and WSJ showed Harris leading by one point when minor party candidates were included.

Battleground state data has been slow to arrive, but what we’ve seen shows that Harris is steadily improving on Biden’s performance. A battery of emerson-Hill Elections In the five battleground states from July 22 to July 23, Wisconsin was leading by 47 percent, and Trump was ahead in Arizona by five points (49 percent to 44 percent). two points in Georgia (48 percent to 46 percent); one point in Michigan (46 percent to 45 percent); and two points in Pennsylvania (48 percent to 46 percent). What are the trend lines more important since the last polls? Emerson in mid-Julytesting Biden against Trump:

More recently, and perhaps most impressively, Bloomberg/Morning Consult released one. New batch of seven battleground state elections Taken from July 24 to 28. Overall, they showed Harris leading by one percentage point (48 to 47 percent), compared to Trump’s two-point lead over Biden in early July. Individual state gains by Harris were also surprising: He led by two percentage points (49 to 47 percent) in Arizona, a real problem state for Biden. two percent in Nevada (47 to 45 percent); Two percent in Wisconsin (49 to 47 percent) and a staggering 11 percent in Michigan (53 to 42 percent). Harris was tied with Trump in Georgia at 47 percent, and trailed by two percentage points (46 to 48 percent) in North Carolina and four percentage points (46 to 50 percent) in Pennsylvania.

There is enough polling after the Biden-Harris switch in three battleground states that averages can now be compiled for the five thirty-eight, and all show very close races. I GeorgiaTrump leads by 1.1 percentage points (45.9 to 44.8 percent), but Harris holds the lead. Michigan 1.8 percent (44.8 to 43.1 percent) and surprisingly, i Pennsylvania 0.4 percent (45.1 to 44.6 percent).

There is also significant evidence that Harris is outperforming Biden in the youth, black and Latino voting categories on which Biden’s 2020 victory hinged. In the most recent Times– Sienna PooleHe leads Trump 59 percent to 38 percent among likely voters under 30, 72 percent to 19 percent among black likely voters and 60 percent to 36 percent among Latino voters. A new one Axios – Generation Lab Poll Among voters 18 to 34, Harris showed Biden’s six-point lead (53 percent to 47 percent) widening to 20 points (60 percent to 40 percent).

In general, Harris is becoming more popular than Biden. Five thirty eight Adaptation average for Harris Currently show him at 42.4 percent favorable/49.1 percent unfavorable, down from a ratio of 36/54 a month ago, and markedly better. Biden’s 38/54 margin When he dropped out of the race.

The odds are good that Harris has a chance to dominate the political news His VP pick revealed And with a United Democratic convention soon to follow, she can keep that positive trend up and running for most of this month. That is if she doesn’t make a huge mistake, and if the Trump-Vance ticket continues to show signs of malaise in the new competition it faces.