Russia struck the PA Pivdenmash facility in Dnipro in eastern Ukraine early on November 21 with an “Oryshank” medium-range missile. The existence of this missile was unknown to the West and the rest of the world until its operational test against Ukraine.

Advance warning

According to comments made by a US administration official at a November 21 briefing, Russia had given the US a short advance warning of an intermediate-range ballistic missile attack on the Dnipro before the attack.

“The United States was notified in advance of the launch through nuclear threat reduction channels,” Defense Department deputy spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also confirmed the warning sent 30 minutes before the launch, Bloomberg reported.

The United States has previously warned Ukraine and its allies that Russia may test such an experimental missile.

According to Bloomberg, Russia notified the United States of the planned launch shortly before the missile took off through nuclear mitigation channels.

During the missile and drone strike targeting central Ukraine, the Russian missile was launched from the Astrakhan region of the Caspian Sea, a distance of about 1,000 km.

A US official confirmed to the Kiev Independent that the US had warned Kiev before the attack that such a weapon could be used against Ukraine.

Orshank ex

The Orshank is believed to be a mobile, solid-fueled missile with a range of between 2,500-3,000 and 5,500 km.

It is equipped with MIRVs (Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles) capable of traveling at hypersonic (Mach 10) speeds.

According to the US Department of Defense, the Orshank missile is based on the RS-26 Rubezh design. The RS-26 is a solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) derived from the RS-24 Yars ICBM. Its range is between 2,000 to 6,000 km.

The RS-24 is capable of carrying MIRVs or Avangard hypersonic glide vehicles.

Russia currently relies on the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle for its hypersonic MIRV capability. The Avangard is designed to deliver nuclear or conventional payloads at speeds up to Mach 20 while maneuvering to evade missile defenses. Its flexibility and speed make it a key element of Russia’s hypersonic strategy.

The RS-26 successfully conducted several tests between 2011 and 2015. Despite its readiness for possible deployment, the missile was excluded from Russia’s 2018-2027 state weapons program. The current status of RS-26 is unknown.

It is possible that the RS-26 may now be redeveloped as the Orshank, following Russia’s focus on strategic and medium-range systems following the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty in 2019.

Soviet RSD-10 Pioneer variant?

There is some speculation that the Orshank is a modern variant of the Soviet RSD-10 Pioneer (NATO reporting name: SS-20 Saber) IRBM. Developed in the 1970s, the RSD-10 missile’s capabilities played a central role in persuading the West to negotiate an Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Limitation Treaty with the Soviet Union.

After the signing of the INF Treaty in 1987, the Pioneer was withdrawn from service to comply with the treaty. The range of the Pioneer missile was reportedly 6000 km.

The Pioneer was a two-stage solid propellant missile launched from a road mobile transporter erector launcher (TEL). It can carry a payload of 1,600 kg or be armed with a 1 megaton warhead. Later variants included a MIRV array with three 150 kiloton nuclear warheads.

It has been suggested that the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty in 2019 and US plans to deploy medium- and short-range missiles in Europe and Asia prompted Russia to develop the Orshank.

Although the Orshank fulfills the role previously assigned to the Pioneer, it is unlikely that the Orshank is a modern variant of the Soviet-era missile.

There is no evidence that Pioneer has ever been tested with Avangard or that it can even carry Avangard. In this context, it is important to understand that Russia has turned to hypersonic warheads to bypass missile defense systems. However, Russia does not develop warheads capable of hypersonic flight. Instead, it delivers warheads using the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle.

Putin’s statements

In a televised address, Russian President Vladimir Putin called the Oryshank missile strike a successful test of the new medium-range missile system.

Putin said the attack was retaliation for Ukraine’s use of US- and British-made missiles on Russian soil earlier this week.

The attack targeted a facility in Ukraine where the US planned to build short- and medium-range missiles.

Other key points made by Putin include:

Russia considers itself entitled to use weapons against installations of countries that allow their weapons to be used against Russian installations.

Russia will respond decisively and decisively to the escalation of tensions.

The target of the Russian attack was a military industrial facility in Dnepropetrovsk, the target was successfully hit.

The missile travels at speeds up to Mach 10, making it impossible to intercept existing air defense systems, including those built by the US in Europe.

Given the missile’s invulnerability, Russia will issue a warning to civilians and citizens of friendly countries in areas targeted by the Orshanak for “humanitarian reasons” before future strikes.

Limited Orshank missile inventory

President Putin called the Nov. 21 medium-range missile attack a test, prompting a US official to say, “Russia probably only has a few of these test missiles.”

Ukraine has endured countless attacks from Russia, including missiles with warheads significantly larger than the weapon, the official added.

However, it is unlikely that Russia would have operationally deployed the Orshank with a very limited inventory. It would be unusual and make little sense.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), headquartered in London, recently reported on its website that over the past six months, Russia has significantly increased its ability to build solid-propellant rocket motors. has expanded and continues to increase its production capacity in this area.

The claim was based on an analysis of Maxar’s satellite images, which suggested significant activity at five facilities, among other things, for the production of solid rocket fuel after a 30-year hiatus in expansion or reconstruction.

So the U.S. official’s conclusion of a limited inventory may be wishful thinking.

The result

The effectiveness of the Orshank attack is yet to be assessed. However, the message is loud and clear.

According to Ruslan Pakhov, head of the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, President Putin sent a very powerful message through the missile attack.

“It’s a very calculated move because it doesn’t require retaliation from the US,” he said.

In fact, the Orshank attack was not intended to provoke the United States. It was presented for reconsideration. The message was that Russia had the power to retaliate and the wisdom not to escalate.

• Vijender K Thakur is a retired IAF Jaguar pilot, author, software architect, entrepreneur, and military analyst.
• Author’s personal views
• Follow the author. @vkthakur